Wenn ich die Berichterstattung richtig verfolgt habe, ist das Szenario von Tschernobyl aus einer ganzen Reihe an Gründen nicht mit der jetzigen Situation vergleichbar. Tschernobyl war aus vielen Gründen eine furchtbare Katastrophe, aber die Opferzahlen, die zum Teil im Netz herumgeistern - zum Teil wird von 125.000 Toten gesprochen -, sind nicht zutreffend. Vorausschauende Dramatisierung hilft hier nicht weiter, die Lage an sich ist jetzt schon schwierig und ernst genug.
Ob die Japaner das bewältigen können? Nun, ich drücke Ihnen jedenfalls die Daumen und wünsche ihnen alles erdenklich Gute (und werde mich einstweilen Weltuntergangsphantasien nicht anschließen). Sprüche wie: 'die Japaner werden jetzt sterben', die so oder in abgewandelter Form im Netz kursieren, finde ich ehrlich gesagt sogar ziemlich abstoßend.
Und da hier und andernorts immer wieder Untergangsszenarien und das Ende Japans prophezeit werden, möchte ich zumindest deutlich machen, dass man die Situation auch weniger dramatisch schildern kann:
ZitatAlles anzeigen
What risk does Fukushima pose currently?
The Japanese authorities have recorded a radiation level of up 400 millisieverts per hour at the nuclear plant itself.
A sievert is essentially equivalent to a gray, but tends to be used to measure lower levels of radiation, and for assessing long-term risk, rather than the short-term acute impact of exposure.
Professor Richard Wakeford, an expert in radiation exposure at the University of Manchester, said exposure to a dose of 400 millisieverts was unlikely to cause radiation sickness - that would require a dose of around twice that level (one sievert/one gray).
However, it could start to depress the production of blood cells in the bone marrow, and was likely to raise the lifetime risk of fatal cancer by 2-4%. Typically, a Japanese person has a lifetime risk of fatal cancer of 20-25%.
A dose of 400 millisieverts is equivalent to the dose from 50 -100 CT scans.
Prof Wakeford stressed only emergency workers at the plant were at risk of exposure to such a dose - but it was likely that they would only be exposed for short periods of time to minimise their risk.
The level of exposure for the general population, even those living close to the plant, was unlikely to be anywhere near as high. There should be no risk to people living further afield.
[...]
How does Fukushima compare to Chernobyl?
Professor Gerry Thomas, who has studied the aftermath of the Chernobyl disaster, said: "It is very unlikely that this will turn into anything that resembles Chernobyl.
"In Chernobyl you had a steam explosion which exposed the reactor core, which meant you had a lot of radiation shooting up into the atmosphere."
Prof Thomas said although the Chernobyl disaster had led to a rise in thyroid cancer cases, the only people affected were those living in the immediate area of the explosion and who were young at the time.
